there's an unusually high level of stress around the election, but the iowa poll made me optimistic. so i'm optimistic with high stress. everyone i know is very stressed about the whole thing.

meanwhile, it's by far the most beautiful time of year. rain on orange and red leaves; people are less aggressive about actually removing them; the town therefore is carpeted with red and orange crinkly round blankets of them around each tree. it's quite a sight. and above, they turn gently brown and fall with the slightest wind. the air becomes cleaner and the soft rain settles the dusts of summer.

the iowa poll was unusual in that it was thorough and really asked a wide range of people what they were doing and why. it was older women and independents who really swung it, because both groups are going blue and both are good at voting. extrapolating we can see a large advantage for harris nationwide and the possibility of several other states going her way. iowa was a good example of how they took a rather vapid poll early on and just sort of assumed it would go red as it did for trump a few years back. but iowa had actually gone for obama, as did several other red states, and is on the cusp that could be called red-purple. now quick let's think of the red-purple states that could also go harris.

i actually think pennsylvania and georgia will be very close, and harris will not be able to count on either one, though she will probably win both. they will be tied up in lawsuits and accusations of cheating etc. which trump has planned from long ago. she will however win wisconsin, michigan, north carolina, and arizona. i'm not sure about nevada,

but if she wins new hampshire, virginia, and florida, as soon as the polls close, we'll know she's on her way. she could win florida because of a huge independent women population, women who have had their rights snatched from them, as well as a puerto rican population of over a million.

i'm hoping she wins ohio - it'll be close - and she could win tennessee. but we'll see her strength as the clock moves westward. she'll win iowa; she may win kansas, and it'll be very close in indiana and missouri. i think she'll win missouri too. and then, she'll win montana, alaska and arizona. texas will be close. idaho will be close. even wyoming and utah will be close but i wouldn't call any of those for harris. those are places where people can't imagine voting for a democrat.

the problem in appalachia is racism, that simple. that's her problem in general; she's not white, and she's not a man. most everyone dislikes trump or at least sees the danger of voting for him. the vast majority of conservatives, and this country is very conservative, vote for him because they're conservative, not because they like him. i find it incredible that a non-white woman even has a chance but it's very very good if this country can do this, if only to include a vast number of people who comprise it and do much of the work. she will make a way better president than trump, who really has no clue about economy, environment, world politics or leadership.